Monday Night Pick - 3-Star

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Line-O/U: Green Bay (-3)
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Reason: Green Bay is averaging nearly 112 yards rushing per game, even with Grant sidelined for the year, and Chicago has only average 70 in their first two games. The 300+ passing attack that Chicago has averaged is facing the toughest DB's yet, lead by pro bowler Charles Woodson. Cutler is prone to making mistakes and many of them coming in important games. I don't think Mike Martz can have an impact on that - it's just part of Cutler's game. Both defenses have looked tremendous, with both allowing an average below 20 points per game. Green Bay should clear this one by a touchdown, and if Aaron Rodgers is on, like he is 99.9% of the time, than he may tear apart the Bears secondary. The only worry to look out for: Julius Peppers. Green Bay's offensive line needs to really protect Rodgers during this game or turnovers can cost them the game, especially playing at Soldier Field. In the end, the Packers will hold their own and Rodgers will lead them to a 3-0 start. This is a 3-STAR pick.

Washington Redskins vs. St. Louis Rams

Game: Washington Redskins vs. St. Louis Rams
Line-O/U: Washington (-3)
Pick: Washington Redskins
Reason: Whether it's Shanahan, McNabb or the combination of the two, these Redskins are for real. They lost a heart breaker and won a game by a holding call, but they look consistent throughout the course of their games. Last year this was a low scoring game (9-7), but the offense, with McNabb, have much more sustainable drives this season. The Rams defensive coordinator, Ken Flajole, had a great stint as the LB coach from 2003-2008, but I don't think he can outsmart the two time Super Bowl champion Mike Shanahan calling the shots on offense. Last year, the Rams let their opponents average a QB rating of 96.9! Their defense was also #31 in points allowed per game, which won't be helped by Bradford. I think the rushing attack of the Redskins will benefit from the turf, and if you play fantasy, watch out for the dangerous Chris Cooley because he can really be used in so many different ways against the Rams DB's and LB's. If DeAngelo Hall can be the shut down corner he's been so far, Clayton and the rest of the crew will see a new Bradford, a little more rookie like - more interceptions. Turnovers will decide this game and the Rams will have too many. This is a THREE STAR bet. * * *

Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins

Game: Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins
Line-O/U: 42.5
Pick: UNDER
Reason: Houston has one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, but Washington has Jim Haslett as a defensive coordinator. With Haslett calling the shots for the defense, I can see Houston having much more trouble than their outing against the Colts last week. Also, Mike Shanahan, the head coach of the Washington Redskins, is a run first coach who will slow down the game with their zone-blocking scheme. The offense of Washington doesn't have much explosiveness outside of their running game and Houston will have trouble with the defensive style brought in by Haslett. If Washington can contain Arian Foster, and only let Andre Johnson have one touchdown at most, the UNDER looks like a sure bet. I think these teams will have powerful defenses this week and if the Houston running game can be kept under control, then the UNDER will hold. FOUR-STAR **** PICK.

September 18 - Boise State vs. Wyoming

Game: Boise St. vs. Wyoming
Line-O/U: 52
Pick: Over
Reason: Why the over? Several, several reasons. How about because the Boise State defense allowed 30 points in their first game? Or that Wyoming, who won't even be able to come close to containing the Boise State offense, allowed 27 points (average) in their past two games. Texas put up 34 points on them and Boise State has a much, much more potent offense. The Virginia Tech win doesn't look as good now after their loss to James Madison and Va Tech put up 30 points on Boise State. Boise State is the #3 team in the nation and their defense isn't much of a "prize". In fact, their ranking is solely dependent on how well their offense is and how well they perform week in and week out. Both of these teams have mediocre defenses at best and their offenses are well above average. Dave Christensen, the head coach of Wyoming, was the offensive coordinator under Gary Pinkel at Missouri when Chase Daniel was in the running for Heisman. He runs a spread offense that despite their talent has a chance to put up points in any game, against any team. I see this game being a shoot out for both teams, and even more impressive, I think Boise State can go over the 52 points all by themselves. Should be an entertaining one so be ready for some nice offense, and not so nice defense. The pick is OVER 52 points in this game. FOUR STAR PICK ****

Week One - Monday Night Slammer (Game 2)

Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line-O/U: -4
Pick: San Diego Chargers
Reason: The Chiefs don't have half the talent that the Chargers have. With Rivers behind center and rookie Ryan Matthews ready for his debut, the Chargers look like they are ready to hand it to the Chiefs. Not only will the Chargers be able to run it with a 4.0 average YPC (yards per carry), but they will also have over 300 passing yards with Rivers slinging the ball to Gates and Floyd. Also, the special teams for San Diego is extremely dangerous with Sproles ready to take off. The offense of the Chiefs is their best unit and the reason Twitpicks is so "high" on the Chargers is because of Matt Cassel. Cassel will be ready throw some balls to the wrong team, and the Chargers are going to make him throw because they will be focused on the dangerous Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. If the Chargers can stop this highly efficient rushing attack, then they will win by two scores or more. If not, this game may be closer then people think, but in the end the Chargers will prevail by at least the spread.

Week One - Monday Night Slammer

Game: New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens
Line-O/U: 36.5 (total)
Pick: Over
Reason: First, let's start off by pointing out that Revis just came back to the Jets and he may be a bit rusty, and even more, Ed Reed is out for the Ravens. The Ravens have many new weapons on offense with Boldin and Housh, but even more dangerous is the now experienced Ray Rice. Rice is looking to start off the season with a 100+ yard game, which is very likely given that the Jets have the defending #1 pass defense. Everyone is so hyped about Cromartie, but people need to understand he is tough to coach, and if things start off in the Ravens favor his frustration will lead to even more points for the Ravens. The only worry for the over is the performance of Mark Sanchez. He isn't nearly up there with even the "good" quarterbacks, but his mistakes may benefit the total points with a possible pick six, or two (not an official prediction). I think people are underestimating the offense of these two teams and overestimating their defenses. The total should exceed 36.5 points tonight and that is the official Twitpicks "Monday Night Slammer".

Preseason Pick - Week 2

Game: Texans vs. Saints (Saints are at home)
Line: Saints (-1)
O/U: 41
Pick: Saints (-1)

Reason: There seem to be many doubters out there about the Saints this season, even though they are the defending champions of the NFL. They did drop their first preseason game to New England, 24-27, which I think doesn't show much about this Saints team because the Patriots, with Welker healthy, are in contention for yet another Super Bowl victory. Also, remember that Houston dropped their first preseason game to the Cardinals who are not a team in contention for the Super Bowl, let alone even the playoffs. Yes, we understand this is a preseason game, but there is no chance that the Saints will drop two straight after having the pressure of trying to defend their championship rings. Both teams have extremely dominant passing games, with medicore passing defenses, but the difference maker is going to be the Saints running game where they averaged about 132 yards per game last season, ranking them 6th overall in the NFL. Don't forget the Saints are also at home, and they feel like they need something to prove, so if they take this game they can, and will, cover the one point spread. This looks like a good bet, but because it's preseason, it is rated a "3 STAR" pick. The Saints running game will take control of this game and they will prevail as the winners. We like this bet at Twitpicks, so if you agree, please follow our very first pick of the "season".

Friday, September 4, 2009

One game in, one win to start the year. I hope some benefited off last night's game when South Carolina covered the bet, easily. Now with more games going on, there will be two picks for Saturday's games. They are...

1. Purdue (-10) vs. Toledo

Both team's have new head coaches this season, but Purdue's HC Hope was on the staff last season, making the transition easier than for Toledo. Although Toledo does have a more experienced team on both sides of the ball, I don't think it will be enough to handle the Boilermakers. Purdue is stronger than last year, despite having more freshmen than juniors and seniors combined. It is the first home game for Hope, so I think there will be plenty of motivation to rack up the score on Toledo. Purdue should pull this one out by at least two touchdowns.

2. Georgia (+5.5) vs. Oklahoma State

It seems the years that Georgia is undervalued are the years where they perform the best. Last time these teams met was in 2007 when Georgia won 35-14 as a 6-point favorite at home. Now it's at Oklahoma State and Georgia is missing their star QB and RB from last year (Stafford and Moreno). Georgia HC Mark Richt is one of the best at preparing his football team for big early season games, and I expect the Bulldogs to come out strong. It's up to the young Georgia QB, Cox, because if he can handle the hostile atmosphere then I don't see his team losing. The home field, and a guy named Dez Bryant, will make it difficult for the Bulldogs to leave with a win, but I don't believe it's enough to stop them. Georgia will come out of this one a winner.

Thursday, September 3

Football season has finally arrived, and that means picks must be made. So, without wasting anymore time, the pick of the night is...

South Carolina (+5) vs. North Carolina State

Coach Spurrier is undefeated in opening games since he has been coach at South Carolina (4-0). South Carolina lost plenty of players to the draft, and this team seems the weakest of Spurrier's tenure. Despite the losses, NC State is inexperienced on the offensive and defensive side. North Carolina State's Home Passing vs. South Carolina's Road Passing Defense ranks are largely in favor of the Gamecocks, 60 vs. 20. Mike Glennon, the backup quarterback, might have to come in if sophomore Russell Wilson continues his past of not sliding, leading to countless injuries. The defense for NC State may struggle against the offensive mind of Steve Spurrier. The only thing I see going in favor of NC State is being at home, and even that isn't a huge advantage.